Today's Home Win Predictions
Today's top predictions are a selection of games that we think are quite favorable. These are based on probability calculations with a range that we determine to be the most optimum in this market. They are calculated using our predictions algorithm, they're not tips that have been researched, so are to be used in support of your own betting research.
|Super Lig (TUR)
About Home Win Predictions
There is a range of different factors that contribute to a win result and we predict our home win fixtures based on a number of variables. Firstly we look at obvious factors like home form, but also the form of the away team. If an away team has poor away form, that can tip the balance in the favor of the home team before the game has even started. So check out our away lose stats, to see teams that lose away games.
Even though the match score doesn't quite factor into the equation in terms of the bet itself, it is something that is factored into the calculations where we feel a team will score more goals than the other team, which offers a good amount of insight into the potential outcome of the game. So the score is a hidden factor in calculating the result market.
Where To Use Home Win Predictions
Bet builders are becoming a popular method of combining high-probability events with other bet markets to increase the odds. Predictable fixtures are often short odds, so punters like to combine bets to make them more profitable. Home wins make a great addition to a bet builder bet and mixed selection accas
Do bear in mind that football is highly volatile, so predictions are still guesses, but based on historical data. If you're interested in using the predictions in something like a bet builder, check out our bet builder stats and fixtures page for up-to-date league stats on each team.
Home Win Tips
We don't currently offer specific tips on our fixtures as we use our data to profile the probability of results rather than highlighting specific football tips. We offer a value based prediction that could be interpreted as a tip, but they're generally events based on probability and not an expert assessment of the match outcome - so they're not tips.
Bet responsibly and don't rely on predictions too heavily. Use the data to support your own football knowledge and only bet what you can afford to lose. If you're looking to maximize a bet, you can always check out our list of free bets from our partners and claim a matched deposit bonus to reduce the risk of losing too much cash if your bets are successful.
Probability models used to predict soccer games.
We have a collection of different prediction feeds that use different models that we combine with our own statistics and match profiling. They all in some respects use a selection of typical probability models like:
- Poisson distribution: This model is used to predict the number of goals that each team will score in a league game, based on their scoring records over a set period of time. We're calculating the predicted outcome based on previous scores and what the expected future outcomes are likely to be.
- Elo rating system: This model is based on a team's expected success and is somewhat like scoring them based on the current league position or their world ranking, versus that of their opponents. It's more commonly used to predict the full-time result of a game and tournaments and is often used where we predict win and lose outcomes.
- Expected goals (xG): The quality of a team's scoring opportunities has become popular with fans and teams to calculate the likelihood of a team scoring based on attacking phases of play that typically end up in shooting opportunities. Its the measure of the probability of a shot resulting in a goal and is used in predictions to calculate final scores
- Machine learning algorithms: AI obviously gets fed historical data to identify patterns and trends that can be used to predict the outcome of future matches, like using head to head data of specific teams, consistent league performances and so on. AI is naturally used in some of our models, but it will never account for the unpredictability of certain events occurring in games.